A Structural VAR Approach to the Intertemporal Model of the Current Account

The intertemporal current account approach predicts that the current account of a small open economy is independent of global shocks, and that responses of the current account to countryspecific shocks depend on the persistence of the shocks. The author shows that these predictions impose cross-equation restrictions (CERS) on a structural vector autoregression (SVAR). To test the CERs, the author develops identification schemes of the SVAR that exploit the orthogonality of the world real interest rate to country-specific shocks as well as the lack of a long-run response of net output to transitory shocks. Tests of the SVAR reveal two puzzling aspects of the Canadian and U.K. current account: (i) the response of the current account to a country-specific transitory shock is too large, and (ii) the fluctuations in the current account are dominated by countryspecific transitory shocks that explain almost none of the fluctuations in net output growth. JEL classification: F32, F41 Bank classification: Balance of payments and components